European demand is flat, but spending by the wealthiest clients is holding up the sector. Watches are growing, leather goods are struggling. The recovery of Chinese tourists opens some prospects for autumn.
Luxury keeps looking for a recovery that, for now, is moving at different speeds. Global Blue’s tax free data from the Luxury Shopping Insights 2026 report show a Europe that is essentially stalled in the first half of the year, while the global market grows by 5%. Average spending is up 7%, but the number of buyers is down 2%. This deserves attention: the market is holding up mainly thanks to those with large fortunes, while less affluent clients remain cautious.
Americans and ultra-wealthy shoppers are the main drivers of purchases. The ultra-wealthy account for just 1% of European tax free buyers but generate 27% of spending. Italy captures 37% of this clientele, an important position that confirms the country’s ability to attract the highest-spending consumers. But looking at what they buy, significant differences emerge. Watches grow 34% in Italy, jewellery loses 7% and leather goods fall 9%. Apparel remains stable. The money keeps circulating, but it concentrates on specific categories.
The United States is today one of the main resources for Italian luxury trade. In the half-year, tax free purchases by Americans rose 21%, reaching 28% of spending in our country. Latin America is also gaining weight, with 25% growth in Italy. Brazil, in particular, is accelerating, and it is worth watching.
Then there is China. After difficult months, the October Golden Week brought an encouraging signal: Chinese buyers in Italy rose 43% and their spending 40%. The figure needs careful reading. In the first half, Chinese spending was still down 3%, despite a 5% increase in visitors who make purchases. Customers are back, but their spending power is changing, and probably the way they choose too. Moreover, part of Chinese consumers is increasingly interested in national brands, which are becoming more credible competitors to the big Western names.
For Italian fashion, this transformation should be a serious point of reflection. The growth of watches and the weakness of leather goods suggest that a brand’s prestige alone no longer guarantees the same results. The international consumer evaluates what they buy more carefully, while luxury continues to propose price increases that are hard to justify through the product.
September and October show an improvement over previous months, but it would be premature to speak of a consolidated recovery. Italy keeps a remarkable commercial pull. The question now is how much this capacity depends on a narrow group of big spenders, and how much it can turn into broader and lasting demand.
Alessandro Sicuro
