What did Burry and Buffett understand? Signals to decipher in global finance

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A reflection on the choices and movements that are changing the way we read the markets. No forecasts, no actionable advice: just a thoughtful analysis of the signals coming from the most experienced players.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and cultural purposes. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments and does not provide advice. Each decision requires personal evaluation and, if necessary, the assistance of qualified professionals. This article offers a critical reading of phenomena, not an absolute truth.

In recent months, global finance has presented a stark contrast. On the one hand, markets continue to perform positively, while on the other, two investors who have built their reputations on prudence and the ability to read cycles are moving in opposite directions. Michael Burry and Warren Buffett aren’t following the euphoria: they’re making decisions that indicate caution.

Michael Burry, known to the general public for The Big Short , isn’t just the man who saw the 2008 crash coming. He’s an analyst who works almost exclusively with numbers and rarely deviates from his usual logic. Today, Burry has decided to close his fund and return the capital to clients. It’s not an impulsive move: it’s a precise assessment of the quality of the current market. To understand the direction of his thinking, just look at the 13F documents, which show the positions of major investors with a forty-day lag. In those documents, Burry appears to be clearly exposed to the AI bubble, with puts on Nvidia and Palantir. It’s his way of saying that prices are too far removed from fundamentals.

At a distance, but in a similar direction, is Warren Buffett. His Berkshire Hathaway has been selling for months and accumulating cash. The amount of cash is among the highest in decades. When Buffett moves this way, it’s not out of fear, but because he believes prices don’t offer real value. Typically, this type of attitude heralds a period of greater uncertainty, not stability.

Beyond individual investors, a broader phenomenon is observed: central banks are steadily buying gold. China, Russia, India, Turkey, Poland, Hungary, and other countries have increased their reserves in recent years. This behavior usually coincides with a period of hedging, when confidence in currency and geopolitical markets is lacking. Italy also fits into this scenario. With over 2,452 tons of gold, some of which is held at the U.S. Federal Reserve and the German Bundesbank, the issue of direct control of reserves has cyclically returned to the forefront of debate.

Putting these elements together, the picture becomes clearer. Burry reduces exposure and opens defensive positions. Buffett increases liquidity. Nations buy gold. This doesn’t mean a collapse is imminent, but it does indicate that those with experience prefer to prepare. The divergence between the euphoria of the markets and the behavior of the most attentive participants is a signal not to be ignored.

Observing these movements isn’t useful for making predictions. It helps us recognize that the market isn’t a linear organism. It changes, expands, contracts, and adapts. In this context, understanding how experienced investors operate helps us understand a phase that is far from simple. Finance today requires attention and the ability to interpret signals that often go unnoticed.

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