September opens with two faces: the rally in American big tech stocks and the rally in gold, which is at an all-time high. In the background, central banks are undergoing a reversal and Europe is gripped by renewed political uncertainty.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve is preparing for its first rate cut as early as September. The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut, with the possibility of a broader intervention if employment slows further. In Europe, after the summer cuts, the ECB appears more cautious: a pause is likely, barring a marked deterioration in growth. France remains under observation: the vote of confidence in Prime Minister Bayrou risks paving the way for a new government, the fifth in three years, just as Paris faces rating downgrades and long-term yields hit multi-year highs.

AI big-caps have boosted the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, but tensions are emerging. Bond yields remain volatile, and infrastructure investments risk compressing margins if not accompanied by adequate revenues. However, the rally is no longer just an “AI and the US” story: participation across global sectors and markets is expanding, and the European Stoxx 600 itself is keeping pace, despite the French stock market lagging behind.

Meanwhile, gold is trading above $3,600 an ounce, with central banks and ETFs returning to buy. It’s no longer just a safe haven, but increasingly a monetary alternative amid a weak dollar and rising US debt. The most aggressive forecasts point to a target of $4,000, with even higher scenarios if confidence in monetary policy were to falter.

The score for the fall will be written by three variables: the speed with which the Fed cuts rates, the ability of tech companies to turn their massive investments in AI into profits, and the trajectory of bond yields. Added to these are European politics, with France threatening to become a short-term point of fragility. If the music stays calm, the mix could continue to support both tech and gold. However, if one of these elements fails, the rotation will be abrupt.

Disclaimer:
The articles in this section are based on analysis of news and reports published by official agencies and open, verified online sources. The goal is to inform and offer insights into stock market movements. This does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities, but is intended to provide informational support. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader.

Alessandro Sicuro
Brand Strategist | Photographer | Art Director | Project Manager
Alessandro Sicuro Comunication