APPOINTMENT MONDAY 22 OCTOBER 12

In accordance with the EU treaties, the Commission can take legal action – with an infringement procedure – against an EU country that does not implement EU law. The Commission can refer the case to the Court of Justice which, in some cases, may impose fines, but …

Probably the European Commission will also embed the explanatory letter on the Italian government’s maneuver; said Commissioner Oettinger. What could happen now? Europe is in reality substantially powerless and “financial markets are the only dam against irresponsible policies” . In reality it is not exactly that way, in the sense that Europe could as a last resort impose sanctions against Italy, the problem is that it would be a single precedent because they have never been imposed on any country.

When France and Germany violated the 3% limit in 2003, as the Financial Times reminds us , they even got the union to suspend the sanctions mechanism. The clash between Italy and Europe can lead to the imposition of sanctions against Italy, even these sanctions have never been imposed against anyone. If it happened now a phase of serious political tensions would open and the Italian government is putting an issue that goes to the heart of the current European system for a fundamental reason. The one related to a phase of development always postponed but necessary to the old continent for a revival both internally and internationally.

This objective must be absolutely achieved. Austerity is incomprehensible not only in any other place in the world, but above all in large parts of the European Union itself. The consensus is high on this issue since the current parameters penalize the poorest and most indebted and reward the richest and least indebted. This is generated because in Europe there is no leveling factor with respect to the difference in economic performance within it. What is completely absurd in what I would like to be I do not say a federation but at least a union of Confederate States.
Austerity is not only an Italian problem, but also Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and even French, even though France has had a privileged status due to its political weight and also due to the lack of political weight of Italian governments.

This concept of Europe poses perplexity to many. For example, the Nobel Prize in Economics Joseph Stiglitz. In fact, he declares in an article on Project Syndicate entitled “Can the euro be saved ?:

«Italy struggles from the introduction of the Euro. If a country goes wrong, it is the fault of the country, if many countries go wrong, the fault lies with the system. The euro is a system almost destined for bankruptcy. It has taken governments away from the main adjustment mechanisms (interest rates and exchange rates), and instead of creating new institutions that would help countries manage new situations, imposed restrictions – often based on discredited political economic theories on deficits, debt, and also structural reforms ». And he adds: “Germany’s response is to load the burden on weak countries, already tried by high unemployment and low growth. We know what a similar choice brings: more pain, more suffering, more unemployment, and even less growth. Italy is sufficiently large, and has sufficiently good and creative economists to study a de facto exit, essentially introducing a double flexible currency that could help to recover wealth. This would violate the rules of the eurozone, but the responsibility for a de jure exit, with all its consequences, would be discharged on Brussels and Frankfurt, with Italy counting on the paralysis of the European Union to avert the final rupture … ” .

But is an exit from Italy likely to come from the euro? Probably not.

Also for the reasons presented by Theo Waigel, for ten years Minister of Finance of the Kohl government.

“If Germany today came out of the monetary union, he declares, then we would immediately have an appreciation between 20% and 30% of the Deutsche Mark – which would be back in circulation again -. Anyone can imagine what it would mean for our export, for our labor market, or for our federal budget “.

The Euro therefore agrees with Germany, which in case of return to the Mark would see its currency improper, while a possible Lira would become very convenient for the markets, for investors and for consumers. If the Italian press insists on spreads and defaults in Germany, however, there are no problems to be clearer.

It is in fact common opinion and shared by many in Berlin and surroundings that an exit from the euro by Italy would probably damage Germany much more than Italy itself and this undoubtedly undermines the German position in the negotiations .

The scenario is therefore widely articulated, presents many variables and probably a solution will be found, this because to find it, beyond the political skirmishes, it is really worth all the parties involved. In a few months we will have the European elections deadline, it is not really conceivable that a declining ruling class will be present at such an important meeting after a head-on collision with Rome.

Alessandro Sicuro Comunication